After reading an article which correctly predicted the winners of the Champion’s league based purely on Historical similarities between winners, I decided to try something similar for Euro 2016. The reduced frequency between tournaments and the change in Format means it is a bit tricky, but I have decided to go with the 5 winners in the closest format to the present 24 team format which is the 16 team format which started in 1996. 1996 also happens to be the first year where 3 points were awarded for a win, 1 point for a draw and none for a loss. The winners in this period were GERMANY in 1996, FRANCE in 2000, GREECE in 2004 and SPAIN in 2008 and 2012.
What did they have in Common?
NO HOSTS ALLOWED
In 32 years no host nation of the European Championships has gone on to win the tournament since France did so in 1984. The closest in our 20 year time frame was when Portugal lost in the final in to surprise package Greece. In fact only 3 of 8 host countries have managed to successfully navigate the group Phase. Bad news for: France
In the last five editions nobody has managed to recover from an opening day loss to win the European Championship. Only Spain in 2012 drew their opening group match, the other 4 times the eventual winners started out with a win. Bad news for: Slovakia, Northern Ireland and Belgium.
GET THE GOALS IN
Goals in the group phase not only win games but builds confidence as well, as proven by the 30 goals scored in the group phase by winners in the past 5 editions. Greece getting the least of them -4- and Spain in 2008 getting the most-8- .So a minimum requirement of 4 goals is set. Bad news for: Switzerland, England, Slovakia, Germany, Northern Ireland, Poland, Italy and Republic of Ireland
With the new format which sees 4 best losers qualify, points amassed in qualification becomes even more important as teams that would have otherwise been knocked out are still competing. However teams which have won in the past 20 years have qualified with 4 points or more. Greece being the least with 4 points in 2004 and Spain in 2008 the only eventual winners to exit the group stage with maximum 9 points. Bad news for: Northern Ireland and Portugal
WIN YOUR QUALIFICATION GROUP
All 5 previous winners have qualified for the main tournament as Group winners in their qualification group. Bad news for: Hungary, Croatia, Iceland, Wales, Switzerland, Republic of Ireland, Slovakia and Poland
From historical facts and figures we can therefore deduce that the winners of Euro 2016 will indeed be Spain as they did not fall in any of the categories sited. Let’s see if History will repeat itself 😉
Article By: @ayoola_kelechi